Free BY Tim Harford : How to Make the World Add Up – pdf

  • Broché
  • null
  • How to Make the World Add Up
  • Tim Harford
  • fr
  • 19 November 2020
  • null

Tim Harford ✓ 0 Summary

Download ¹ How to Make the World Add Up 100 Statement accompanied by a large number and wondered whether it could really be true Statistics are vital in helping us tell stories we see them in the papers on social media and we hear them used in everyday conversation and yet we doubt themthan everBut numbers in the right hands have the power to change the world for the better Contrary to popular belief good statistics are not a trick although they are a kind of magic Good statistics are not smoke and mirrors; in fact they help us seeclearly Good statistics are like a telescope for an astronomer a microscope for a bacteriologist or an X ray for a radiologist If we are willing to let them good statistics help us see things about the world around us and about ourselves both large and small ­ that we would not be able to see in any other wayIn How to Make the World Add Up Tim Harford draws on his experience as both an economist and p. The book is of a type beware of your biases put in place systems that will allow you to identify your errors and to update your predictions understand affect your emotions your unconscious predeliction to rely on heuristics and your tendency to hold on to strong beliefs in the face of counterevidence Look at the data carefully and learn to look beyond the data Read Kahneman and try to be like the superforecasters etcKahneman s writings have in fact given rise to a whole generation of financial and betting market pundits who have fooled themselves into believing that they have the capacity to develop a capability to tap into their unconscious processes and to develop better executive functions and low impulsivity in riskreward environments than other traders these people believe themselves to be less susceptible to biasing influences than others as far as they are concerned mistakes in deductive and inductive reasoning decision making deficits happen to other people The problem is simple they are great at constructing models but they are no better than the next man at actually predicting the futureThe Superforecasters to a man failed to predict Brexit and Trump the book does not deal with this They were less wrong which means that they ascribed a probability to an event outcome and the event happenedIn nuce one is left to conclude that Harford is capitalising upon the wave of homophily that his book sets out to castigate Birds of a feather and all of that

Summary How to Make the World Add UpHow to Make the World Add Up

Download ¹ How to Make the World Add Up 100 Tim Harford is our most likeable champion of reason and rigour clear clever and always highly readable' Times' Books of the Year 'If you aren't in love with stats before reading this book you will be by the time you're done Powerful persuasive and in these truth defying times indispensable'Caroline Criado Perez author of Invisible Women'Nobody makes the statistics of everyday lifefascinating and enjoyable than Tim Harford'Bill Bryson'Fabulously readable lucid witty and authoritativeEvery politician and journalist should be made to read this book but everyone else will get so much pleasure and draw so much strength from the joyful way it dispels the clouds of deceit and delusion' Stephen Fry'Wise humane and above all illuminating Nobody is better on statistics and numbers and how to make sense of them'Matthew SyedTHE SUNDAY TIMES BUSINESS BESTSELLERWhen was the last time you read a grand. First of all if you re at all familiar with Tim Harford s writing you can be assured this book is up to his usual superlative standard informative accessible and entertaining It is perhaps telling that Harford s dedication is to teachers as How to Make the World Add Up gives us the sort of text we all wish we could have learned from as students at school or college It makes absorbing new information and incisive commentary feel like leisure time rather than studyBut with the recent growth in mistrust of the scientific method and the numerical data it reliably generates the book also gives us an important lesson Through case studies and well reasoned argument Harford demonstrates not just that the world can be understood with the aid of numbers but that we must be careful of our own reaction to what those numbers tell us and the context in which they are presentedSome elements of Harford s excellent Cautionary Tales podcast appear in the pages of this book and it is all the better for that If we misconstrue or worse deliberately misuse data then unintended conseuences can result in the sort of damage we would most certainly prefer to avoid How to Make the World Add Up is a warning a lesson and a reassuring hug all at once

Summary ↠ PDF, DOC, TXT or eBook ✓ Tim Harford

Download ¹ How to Make the World Add Up 100 Resenter of the BBC's radio show 'More or Less' He takes us deep into the world of disinformation and obfuscation bad research and misplaced motivation to find those priceless jewels of data and analysis that make communicating with numbers worthwhile Harford's characters range from the art forger who conned the Nazis to the stripper who fell in love with the most powerful congressman in Washington to famous data detectives such as John Maynard Keynes Daniel Kahneman and Florence Nightingale He reveals how we can evaluate the claims that surround us with confidence curiosity and a healthy level of scepticismUsing ten simple rules for understanding numbers plus one golden rule this extraordinarily insightful book shows how if we keep our wits about us thinking carefully about the way numbers are sourced and presented we can look around us and see with crystal clarity how the world adds u. Thought provoking insight into the world of mis dis un information told with a sense of fun and intrigue leaving you with a different perspective and a drive to get ever curious about the worldA must for anyone who has firm views on the world I hope you can find some balance afterwardsThe author recaps on those in history who have done well not so well elaborating as he goes and creating a real sense of storytelling throughout It makes the read even enjoyable